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01.01.2014
NEWSLETTER No. 30
 
 
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AGDO
ARAB/ GERMAN GREEN DEVELOPMENT ORGANISATION
 
--- WORLD3-03 SCENARIO ---
< LIMITS TO GROWTH >
 
 
 
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THE WORLD3 MODEL ( Created in 1972 ) is a cybernetic computer simulation to explore the interactions between factors such as population, industrial growth, food production and their impact on possible limitations in the Earth's ecosystems. It was originally developed on behalf of the Club of Rome under the leadership of Dennis L. Meadows and Jørgen Randers. The information obtained from these were published in the book The Limits to Growth.
In World3-03 a total of 68 constants, 164 intermediate sizes and 15 state variables are interrelated. In addition there are a number of countless parameters in so-called lookup tables. These tables are also known as lookup tables which describes quite well what they are relevant. They contain obtained or made by plausible assumptions through empirical measurements table values.
 
 
 
WORLD3- SCENARIO / STANDARD OF LIVING :
Scenario standard of living
  FOOD PER HEAD [GRAIN UNITS KG / (YEAR * PERSON)]
  CONSUMER GOODS PER HEAD [$ / (YEAR * PERSON)]
  SERVICE OUTPUT PER CAPITA [$ / (YEAR * PERSON)]
  LIFE EXPECTANCY [YEARS]
 
AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM
In this subsystem there is land and fertilizers. Both are required for effective agriculture: the more land and fertilizers are available, the more food can be produced. According to this model, there must eventually be a shortage of food, as well economic land is finite as the industrial production of fertilizers. This can not keep up with the demand of an ever growing world population step producible amount of food.
NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCES
The subsystem of the non-renewable raw materials is assumed that the total amount of raw materials is finite (approximately 110 times the consumption of 1990 World3/91-Modell). These inventories may be exhausted and then serve as an input variable for the other components of the model. Another important assumption of this model is that the extraction of raw materials is initially relatively easy, but then increasingly difficult.
 
 
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duda
PLAN B
 
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WE LIVE HEALTH AND HIGH PROSPERITY WITH GOOD IN A TIME.
 
Number and variety are consumer goods cheaply and in great availably. Luxury goods are reasonable. A high life expectancy is the consequence. The population number of countries and towns is, that enough jobs are available and ours so high welfare system work. Our society grows and prospers and doesn't have any greater limits for hard-working and clever citizens with an occupation of her choice to increase her standard of living further.
  • Life in luck and liberty is natural.
 
 
 
--- THE PRESIDENT ---
president
HASAN ALSHAREEF
president@agdo.org
 
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